The Book

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The Book

By Sam Assaf

Outline

• Abstract & Example : Analysts & Coaches
• Introduction : Analysts & Coaches
• Problem Framing : Analysts
• Related works : Analysts
• Data Overview : Analysts
  • Variables in Model : Analysts & Coaches
  • Data Visualization : Analysts & Coaches
• Methods : Analysts
  • Model Adjustments : Analysts & Coaches
    • Model Without Risk Aversion Adjustments : Analysts & Coaches
    • Model With Risk Aversion Adjustments : Analysts & Coaches
• Discussion : Analysts & Coaches
• Examples Plots / Situation : Analysts & Coaches
• Conclusion and Future Work : Analysts & Coaches

Abstract & Example : Analysts & Coaches

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Introduction : Analysts & Coaches

Problem Framing : Analysts

Related works : Analysts

Data Overview : Analysts

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Variables in Model : Analysts & Coaches

Outcome Variable	Game Data	Play Data
Win Probability Added (WPA)	Stadium Roof Surface Temperature Wind Weather detail	Play type (input) | Field goal probability | Yards to go (first down or | score) | Yardline (continuous and | binned)1 | EPAs2 | ELOs3 | Score differential (binned)4| Game time remaining (binned)5 Score difference time ratio6|

Data Visualization : Analysts & Coaches

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Methods : Analysts

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Model Adjustments : Analysts & Coaches

Model Without Risk Aversion Adjustments : Analysts & Coaches

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Model With Risk Aversion Adjustments : Analysts & Coaches

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Discussion : Analysts & Coaches

Examples Plots / Situation : Analysts & Coaches

Conclusion and Future Work : Analysts & Coaches

Footnotes

1. Quantitative : 1 - 60 & Categorical / Bins : [1, 5], [6, 15], [16, 25], [26, 38], [39 to 45], [46, 60]

2. Expected Points Added (EPAs) are a measure of the expected point value at the start of a play. Various aggregated and lagged measures - for both teams, offensive pass & run game, defensive pass & run game.

3. ELO ratings are used to rank teams and specific features of a team based on their performance. Various aggregated and lagged measures - for both teams, offensive pass & run game, defensive pass & run game

4. Categorical / Bins : (-∞,17], [-16,-9], [-8,-4], [-3,0], [1,3], [4, 8], [9, 16], [17,∞)

5. Categorical / Bins : First Quarter : [15,0], Second Quarter : [15,4), [4, 2), [2,0], Third Quarter: [15,0], Fourth Quarter : [15, 7), [7, 4), [4, 2), [2, 0]

6. Score difference time ratio is addressing the relationship between score differential and time remaining. The average time remaining for each bin of time remaining and most frequently occurring score differential for each bin to calculate this measure